Warren SURGES to 2nd Place, FIRST Place in Betting Markets

Warren SURGES to 2nd Place, FIRST Place in Betting Markets

There’s something super interesting happening
in the 2020 Democratic primary. I alluded to it in the last segment. Elizabeth Warren has sort of quietly and steadily
surged into second place in the 2020 Democratic primary polling and maybe just as interestingly
is now tied for first place in what are called the prediction markets for the 2020 Democratic
primary. I’ll get to that. This came up yesterday during my twitch live
stream. There’s another twitch live stream happening
this evening, 6:30 PM eastern time. I hope you’ll join me at twitch.tv/david Pacman
polls. Ask people who do you support prediction markets? Ask people who do you believe will win regardless
of who you support. And often those are more accurate. So first, let’s look at the polling I told
you months ago. Elizabeth Warren is not doing anything flashy
but she is slowly but surely gaining about one-to-one and a half points per month in
polling and she’s doing it not with debate, kill shot attempts or ad hominems. She’s doing it with policy and talking to
voters including in red parts of the country. She put out last week a detailed internet
public option policy. She put out a detailed healthcare policy education
policy I just outlined for you her gun safety regulation policy and she has just continued
to plug away and pick up about a point to a point and a half per month and she is now
more solidly entering second place. As you can see on screen, if you’re watching
Joe Biden is still in first place, but as dropped a bit in the last week, Elizabeth
Warren is now up to 18% with Bernie Sanders behind her at 16.8 it’s still very close. Some would argue within the margin of error,
although when you average polls, the margin of error calculation becomes a little different. But the trend has been Bernie steady Joe falling
off. Elizabeth Warren slowly but surely climbing
now, just as interestingly, Elizabeth Warren has tied to Joe Biden for Perth first place
in the prediction markets right now, if you go to the website, predicted the money is
even on Biden versus Warren. Now, there are some other questions here because
some of these other numbers don’t make much sense. You’ll see that in this particular prediction
market, uh, Andrew Yang seems a bit high given where he’s polling Tulsi Gabard seems a bit
high given where she’s polling. She may not even make the third debate. Kamala Harris is also probably too high. Bernie may be too low, but Elizabeth Warren
clearly has momentum and the prediction markets are seeing it. In fact, yesterday Elizabeth Warren was ahead
of Biden solely in first place. Now she’s back into a tie with Biden in the
prediction markets. Imagine what kind of a relief it would be
to the world if we had Elizabeth Warren or a Bernie Sanders as president of the United
States. I don’t think right-wingers realize this,
or if they do, they certainly don’t care. Even if right-wingers are against some of
the policies of Warren and Sanders, nationalized healthcare, single payer, some version of
it, not Cajun kids or whatever. Do they understand, do you think that the
United States around the world would be reinvigorated drastically in terms of our reputation? If Trump were to be replaced by someone like
Warren or Sanders, I know that they do all the talking points and we will never be a
socialist country. Get these Socialists Outta here. They of course have no clue what socialism
even is. I understand that they say all of that stuff,
but do you think they realize that the United States is suffering such a reputational deficit
and alliance deficit right now? Uh, I don’t know if they do and if they do
realize that. I think a lot of the trumpets think if other
countries dislike us, it’s probably because we’re doing great things for ourselves. I mean, they participate in this bizarre,
childish sort of zero sum mentality. And one thing that’s appealing about Warren
relative to Biden and Bernie and Trump, which may actually be to her advantage if she ultimately
is the nominee, uh, is that she is quite a bit younger than Biden and Bernie and Trump. And that is an issue that is coming up more
and more. Let me know what you think number one about
Elizabeth Warren’s trajectory here. Number two, about looking at prediction markets
versus, or in addition to, uh, election polls. Let me know what you think about Warren’s
age relative to some of these other front runners and Donald Trump. Uh, and we’ll do, we’ll continue to do a follow
up and track this information. Make sure that you follow the David Pakman
show on Instagram at David Pakman show. And while you’re there, follow me at David. Dot. Pacman updated tomato progress pictures. I have way more tomatoes growing in my backyard
now and I think that now they’re in the several dozens. Uh, the plants still don’t look great because
I’m clueless, but I do have more tomatoes and you can see that in my latest stories. Uh, on my Instagram page at David doc pact. Quick break. We’ll be right back.

Danny Hutson

100 thoughts on “Warren SURGES to 2nd Place, FIRST Place in Betting Markets

  1. I honestly can’t stand Warren. Something about her just feels as if she’s pretending to be what she thinks will get her support.

  2. Literally a poll today came out with Bernie at 20%, Biden at 23%, and Warren at 16%. Bernie is behind by as much as the margin of error. And David and any political analyst should know that both the poll I cited and the polls David is citing are snapshots of reality that don’t remotely paint an accurate picture. Especially with the amount of people that are never seeked out by polling groups that have much larger and more active support for Bernie than for Warren or anyone. Just look at the individual donations map or the number of volunteers Bernie has compared to the rest. David should go work for MSNBC

  3. Many on the right simply don't care about our reputation or world relations. They're specifically told they don't need to.
    USA Uber Alles.

  4. If Elizabeth Warren becomes a Prez, then Simpson's prediction comes true that she will inherit a quite a mess nation which will be on he brink of anarchy and, possible, civil wars (2).

  5. I think the age thing is a little silly, particularly when discussing Warren. She's 8 years younger than Bernie. Now if one person is 20 and another is 12, 8 years is a lot. But we're talking about people in their 70's.

  6. Of course they realise it, they love it! They loved being the assholes under bush, the differences with trump are superficial.

  7. She was my pick some months ago..Biden is completely out of touch. I like Bernie, but I can't see him winning. We'll see soon enough..

  8. Still like Bernie but if nominated I will vote for Elizabeth. Bernie and Elizabeth for 2020 would be good together.

  9. Bernie is my choice and I want Warren for Bernie’s Treasury Secretary. I will even take her as VP but Bernie is the President we need to turn our Country around. Warren can take the wheel after Bernie.

  10. There is no consolation prize for second place. Warren better come up with some better talking points. Quit trying to give the country away for free. People want results not false rhetoric. And quit smoking so much peyote. Grandma Warren. She really has no chance. Trump would "smack" the bitch to the ground. Trump 2020.

  11. Warren doesn't get the smears and negative attacks from corporate medias that Bernie Sanders get on a 24/7 basis.

  12. OMG I'm almost afraid to believe it could happen…Elizabeth Warren would be GREAT!!! Still sad it's not Bernie but I would go with her without reservation. Not Biden please please…the center is a non position

  13. Lol, David again with the worst timing reading the polls. RCP average got updated, and Sanders regained 2nd place with 0.5%. There are a lot of polls at the beginning of the week, and Real Clear politics is a bit slow to update.

  14. Predicted this a while back, Warren is acceptable to progressives and isn’t reflexively hated by more “establishment” primary voters like Bernie is.

  15. Pakman failed to explain WHY the aggregate polling has Warren ahead. If you look at the polls it's 100% only because of Economist/YouGov and Quinnipiac, which constantly release polls every week and have the same polls every time with Biden in 1st and Warren in 2nd. The last Economist/YouGov poll had Biden nearly tied with Bernie for younger voters 18-29. How does no one find these polls suspect? Bernie CRUSHES with younger voters.

  16. Warren's "coloring inside the lines" style of getting things done doesn't seem to me to be as effective as Bernie's "rile up the masses" but they'd both be great. I do like that Warren is younger and she does seem to be harsher on wall street. My biggest issue, and it's a small one, is that she's not as gung ho for MFA which is tied with climate change as my top issue.

  17. I've been stuck on Warren long before this primary kicked off. I am even more entrenched on her now. She is smart, educated, thoughtful, engaging and understands the issues. As a President she understands MONEY. She has ideas. She is willing to compromise. She will relent on Medicare for all because she knows she can't get it in its present form unless she also gets the wealth tax. But; she will fight and fight and fight. Also, I am so, so sick of OLD Dumb WHITE MEN running the show and screwing up everything they touch. It's that simple. She also won't be on the gulf course, she will be working for us.

  18. A Republican who admitted to physically abusing women and made explicitly sexist comments about women, beat the first female candidate for President in 2016. Think about that for a minute.

  19. My apologies to Bernie fans, he is a lovable character, but past his Prime. Warren is the better choice. She is bright, brilliant, vibrant, energetic, she has climbed from humble beginnings, she has convictions, she has taught economics and law at prestigious universities, harvard included. She passed the Frank- Dodd consumer protection act. She's gone after big banks. She's also at the top of her game. It would be refreshing to have a leader with brains once again.

  20. That's BS Bernie kicks everyones ass and we need him. EW I guess will do but I dont think she'll shine at all. Shes typical political shit, just near the top

  21. I agree David. First thing I thought of was that Elizabeth Warren is younger, and that she might have a better chance due to this. She’s also a fighter and so I wish her all the best.

  22. Iffy that she beats trump. And if she does it’s iffy if she’s being honest about her policies. We’ve seen how easily she wilts under a little pressure from the Democratic Party. Definitely a worse candidate than Bernie.

    Bernie dominates trump and there is no doubt he will fight for the people and progressivism.

  23. Best case scenario. This ends up being a race between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. And by the end whichever one wins they end up picking each other as the VP.

  24. Warren is a fraud! Shes been a republican most of her life. She flip flops on important issues. I don’t trust her. Give me a Bernie Yang ticket!

  25. A couple weeks ago Pakman argued that it was a good thing that Warren was running, that it didn't hurt Sanders.
    Now, as she picks up steam at his expense Pakman starts sounding more and more like a Warren supporter.

  26. The prediction markets (like Iowa Electronic Market) got Trump vs Hillary wrong. Those markets are hurd psychology driven, they are not mystically efficient prediction black boxes, nor are they aggregators of truth, they are not getting information from the grass roots, so they are not reliable. Plus, this 2020 election is not going to be typical, it is a huge potential "change" election, so Pakman is dumb to be relying on polls.

  27. The prediction markets (like Iowa Electronic Market) got Trump vs Hillary wrong. Those markets are hurd psychology driven, they are not mystically efficient prediction black boxes, nor are they aggregators of truth, they are not getting information from the grass roots, so they are not reliable. Plus, this 2020 election is not going to be typical, it is a huge potential "change" election, so Pakman is dumb to be relying on polls.

  28. it's sad, but i think trump will win again, civilization always has regressions, and the US is a very important beacon of leadership and progress in the world. I don't know where all of this will lead on a global scale, but i am sure that future generations will look back at this time and learn from the mistakes humanity as a whole is making right now.

  29. You’re bias. A day before Bernie had passed warren drastically. The reason she jumped ahead of Bernie was because Fox News just released theirs. And we know them.,I think warren is in it to help Bernie. Then will endorse him

  30. She won't win. There are tooany Americans who will never vote for a woman. If Hillary was a man nut everything else was equal she(he) would be in the Whitehouse right now. It's something they havent spoken about but cause nobody wants to face the truth. America is a cesspool full of bigots.

  31. I watch david pakman and kyle’s shows, both of which support bernie and warren’s policies. But I have a couple questions about the policies which I think haven’t been answered. Please don’t call me misinformed or dumb or anything, just answer my questions. I am only a kid so bear with me.

    1. Instead of having m4a, why not just have medicare for whoever wants to switch from their private insurance, and then have everybody realize that m4a is better and eventually everyone will switch. Why not just let people make their own choices to get rid of their premiums and deductibles and copays. I get health insurance from my parent’s employer (MIT) and my parents tell me that it’s better than m4a so they wouldn’t switch if they had the choice. So why not let people make the decision themselves, and then all the people with worse insurance than m4a will switch and pay into it with increased taxes, and all the people with better insurance can stay on their better insurance. Then everyone will be covered at least as well as medicare and nobody will need to be forced into it. That’s better, right?

    2. Instead of having free state college, why not have greatly cost reduced state college, say 5000 a year, with federal subsidies. In Europe they have free college and it’s a problem because the teachers have less motivation because they don’t see the students as paying customers. So they don’t put too much effort in, for the most part. So why not have greatly cost reduced college, reduced so much that students can almost pay for it with a summer job? That way they will still be seen as paying customers and will need to be treated as such, but they won’t end up with insane loans.

    3. Wouldn’t a $15 minimum wage reduce hiring, so wouldn’t it be better to ensure that everyone gets at least a minimum standard of living by having a UBI paid for by tech companies or by the rich? Also, some people can’t work and the 15 dollar minimum wage doesn’t help them. And it seems like small businesses would not be able to hire as many employees or go out of business. So why not put the cost of giving everyone a minimum quality of life on the very rich and the tech companies that are driving people off their jobs with automation? That way it wouldn’t be burdened by the small businesses, and people who can’t work or who have been replaced by robots can still benefit from our growing economy.

  32. As a Sanders supporter, Warren is my fourth choice, behind Andrew Yang, who is in turn behind Tulsi Gabbard. I'd be Okay with a Prez Warren, but not thrilled. Warren's foreign policy is not what I want at all

  33. Bull shit Dave, no Identity politics! Age, gender, etc should NOT MATTER.. what that fuck Dave!! Stop watching FOX news..

  34. I am going to swim against the comment stream here. I love Warren and can’t wait to vote her! I still love Bernie and will gladly say he is an American hero and he is all about doing right by the country. But my heart goes to Warren and I feel like I get to vote for something in her instead of against something (like Trump). Very exciting all the way around. David don’t worry about how your tomato plants look. In order to produce lots of tomatoes they look not great. Healthy vibrant-looking tomatoes plants yield almost nothing in the way of harvest yield.

  35. Ok, I have stated my pro Warren case, which not everyone agrees with and that is fine. So my thing here is the tone of so many of comments that favor Bernie. Yes, he is an awesome American hero, and I believe that all the way, but why do you guys attack Warren and the other so hard. That seems a little Trumpy to me. It weakens your case for him in my eyes. If you think he is best vote for him. If he is the best, he needs to convince people like me that he is the best. Others tearing Warren down does not make him look stronger. It makes me think you see him as weak and in need of protecting much like Biden’s campaign staff are trying to make Joe much less visible to hide his weaknesses. He is running for president and taking command of the nation and making all of us want him in the Oval Office is his job right now. If he fails, he will lose the nomination. And yes I agree that the WA post and other mainstream media have it out for him, but why not focus your energy on things like that instead of calling Warren a fraud. If Bernie wins the nomination I will campaign my heart out for him, and I will use my voice to lift up his presidency in any way I can. I wish I felt the same respect coming from so many of you. It makes me sad really.

  36. Tomatoes are very water and nitrogen hungry david. You also want them growing in a sunny position. Good beginner plant to grow!

  37. Everywhere I look online is full of Bernie support. Every person I talk to in real life loves Bernie. Where is this massive crowd of Warren supporters hiding? Something smells fishy ?

  38. 1:01 – Stick with platitudes because you don't know shit about logical fallacies. And half of her debate is ad hominem

  39. Bernie, Elizabeth in that order would be our best bet. Lowest Common Denominator Politics will surely flood the zone on the Poca U know what. Trump is Shameless and verbally brutal. The right wing hit squad is already priming the pump on this One topic. It hits all the buttons, masogeny, sexism, racism, owning Libs…it's the equivalent of butchering a steer in front of his Crowds and passing out the meat.
    Putting her second on the ticket mitigates some of this. Huge respect for Senator Warren…. she's my Senator….but my hope is they Join forces. Trump cannot steamroll Bernie, try as he will. Bernie's street cred runs for Miles…

  40. I don’t trust these polls because they are outdated. They still use the old methods that doesn’t get a good representation of the actual electorate. That being said I’m for Bernie all the way. Bernie is my choice, but I will vote for Warren. If the nominee is anything other then those two, I’m either writing in or voting Green. I didn’t count people who I am 99% sure won’t win the nomination like Tulsi and Yang.

  41. I’m Canadian, can I donate to Bernie? The world is watching you, America. Don’t screw up again.

    Warren is ok too, though. ?

  42. Those who support Warren may want to read this. https://medium.com/@teamwarren/a-plan-for-economic-patriotism-13b879f4cfc7

  43. People save America vote for Elizabeth Warren she has the masterplan and cares about people and truth AND WILL NOT BE BOUGHT BY ANYONE .

  44. Check out Warren's agriculture plan. She REALLY gets it in a way that Bernie doesn't. Bernie is focused on breaking up monopolies, Warren is focused on paying farmers a fair price. The only reason there are monopolies is that farmers have no price security and turn to agribusiness (Cargill, ADM, Monsanto) to soften the blow. If you break up monopolies without fixing the price, the situation gets even worse than before. If you fix the price, monopolies are weakened and Wall Street burns to the ground. Bernie's heart is always in the right place, but his ideology is reflexive and often misses the real sources of problems. I'll vote for him if he wins, but Warren is far and away the best candidate in this race, and the best we've had since FDR.

  45. Too many people have underestimated Warren simply
    because she is a women. If there were not so much
    anti women sentiment, she would presently be polling
    higher than Biden. She will eventually overtake Biden;
    because, she is the vastly superior candidate !

    It is taking too many people way too long to figure out
    that Warren is smarter and more capable than any of
    her male competitors ! If Warren had made the same
    mistakes that Biden has made, her poll numbers would be
    much lower. There definitely is a double standard bias against
    women – even among so called "Progressives".

    Democrats need to do some real soul searching.
    This compulsion to gravitate toward proven failures
    like Sanders and Biden indicates something very
    dysfunctional about the party that claims to be better
    than the proudly parasitical Republicans !!

  46. Bernie Sanders is 76 and has a very athletic brain. Noam Chomsky is older still and as sharp as a tack, so age alone is not an issue for me. As far as where Elizabeth Warren is in the polls, that scares me a LOT ! Warren is better than trump and better than Biden, but not better enough. If climate scientist are right we have less than 10 years to correct our CO2 emissions. We can't afford elect a president where there is any chance of their being compromised and Warren has let us know she intends to 'get money wherever she can get it in order to beat trump'. That is just way too risky. We need a president that can't be swayed by Corporate America and Warren is setting herself up to do just that. According to a Forbes study Warren has already taken donations from two billionaires at the same time claiming not to have taken money from big money donors. Btw, if you have not seen that study it is worth searching for. It tells you right up front who Corporate American believes will do their bidding.

    I am not even going to get into the serious need of this country to repair the damage trump has done to the standing of this country globally. We are a country in crisis and we need the best and we need them now. At another time in history we could gamble, but not now. It really is Bernie or nothing in my mind.

  47. I trust Warren a lot, but that being said, I trust Sanders far more then Warren. I won't be switching to team Warren anytime soon. She may be pulling ahead in polls, but she's still far behind Bernie in every aspect of fund raising and in my opinion, she lags behind Sanders in experience and credibility. I'm going to continue to give my $23 a month to the Sanders campaign, and I'm gonna give a bit more whenever I can. Hell, I'm gonna see if I can up my $23 to something more.

  48. David, while I really love Warren and her policies, I really believe with the current political climate in America she cannot win against trump simply because she's a woman. And I really hate that I believe that. Too many people that MIGHT vote for Bernie simply won't vote for her because she's female.

  49. literally man what is wrong with human beings……you have a clear choice as Bernie….literally bad…..however Warren vs Trump would be amazing as well…….She will do the same to him as what she did to Delaney

  50. Can't believe these useless ass candidates keep moving up. This bitch doesn't even believe in automation and wants $15 min wage over UBI.

  51. I'd much rather have Bernie than Liz, but then, I'd also much rather have Liz than Biden or Harris or Buttigieg or Trump. So… if I can't have Bernie, and I can't have Tulsi, then… fine, okay, Liz it is.

    But I'd much rather have Bernie. If Bernie is chocolate cake, Biden is dog poop and Trump is radioactive battery acid, Elizabeth is pretty much broccoli. I mean I guess I'll eat it, I just won't have any enthusiasm about it.

  52. Right now I'm probably about 55% Sanders 45% Warren 0% everyone else. I like Bernie because of his record with these policies and he's the OG that brought them into the forefront during the 2016 primary. I like Warren because I feel like she could be a galvanizing force bringing together the Bernie folks and the old Hilary folks that just wanted a woman or maybe just wanted someone slightly more moderate. As we begin talking about a recession, I am becoming more comfortable with Warren because I feel like she grasps financial issues very well. I might feel more comfortable with a president Warren leading us through and out of a recession.

  53. I feel like if Warren starts to have a substantial lead over Sanders, we should vote for her over sanders to ensure Biden loses

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